Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | YALE -535 PENN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YALE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +4 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | YALE -7.7 (-11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -9.6 (-13.6) | 140.5 (+31.5) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -8.0 (-12.0) | 139.6 (+32.4) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -7.8 (-11.8) | 138.9 (+33.1) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -7.2 (-11.2) | 138.9 (+33.1) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | YALE 74 – 70 PENN |
| Jan 24, 2026 | YALE 77 – 60 PENN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | YALE 72 – 71 PENN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | YALE 90 – 61 PENN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | YALE 76 – 62 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YALE | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#74) | 0.4 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#68) | 0.27 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#77) | 0.38 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#21) | 0.538 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YALE | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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