Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | YALE -1800 PENN +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YALE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +1 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | YALE -22.2 (-21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -18.5 (-17.5) | 148.5 (-5.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -17.5 (-16.5) | 150.5 (-7.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -18.7 (-17.7) | 150.7 (-7.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -18.0 (-17.0) | 150.1 (-7.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PENN 88 – 84 YALE |
| Feb 21, 2026 | YALE 74 – 70 PENN |
| Jan 24, 2026 | YALE 77 – 60 PENN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | YALE 90 – 61 PENN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | YALE 76 – 62 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YALE | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-8 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 4-10 |
| Home | 11-0 | 5-8 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#63) | -9.3 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#91) | -1.59 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#85) | -1.74 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#50) | 0.430 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YALE | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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