Betting Lines
| Spread | PORT -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | PORT -163 PEPP +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PORT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PORT +15 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | PORT -3.1 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -3.1 (+11.9) | 159.7 (+7.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PORT -3.3 (+11.7) | 160.9 (+6.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PORT -2.4 (+12.6) | 159.1 (+7.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -2.1 (+12.9) | 159.9 (+7.1) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | PORT 77 – 68 PEPP |
| Feb 19, 2026 | PEPP 95 – 87 PORT |
| Jan 15, 2026 | PEPP 67 – 63 PORT |
| Mar 8, 2025 | PEPP 86 – 73 PORT |
| Feb 28, 2025 | PORT 87 – 67 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PORT | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 2-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Away | 2-10 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 81.8 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#173) | 0.5 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#171) | -0.63 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#157) | -0.21 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#179) | 0.482 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PORT | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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