Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | USU -700 SJSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +1 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | USU -13.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -11.5 (-10.5) | 139.2 (+9.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -11.9 (-10.9) | 139.6 (+9.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -10.6 (-9.6) | 143.5 (+5.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -11.6 (-10.6) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | USU 96 – 78 SJSU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USU 105 – 57 SJSU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | USU 85 – 78 SJSU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | USU 90 – 70 SJSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | USU 82 – 61 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#35) | 1.5 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#36) | 1.10 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#31) | 1.32 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#18) | 0.556 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 12.2% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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