Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -500 DEP +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +11 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -14.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -11.9 (-0.9) | 151.8 (-12.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -12.9 (-1.9) | 152.4 (-13.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -11.3 (-0.3) | 150.9 (-11.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -11.7 (-0.7) | 150.2 (-11.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PROV 71 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 7, 2026 | PROV 90 – 72 DEP |
| Mar 5, 2025 | DEP 80 – 77 PROV |
| Dec 11, 2024 | PROV 70 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 18, 2024 | PROV 81 – 70 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 3-17 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#33) | 0.7 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#29) | 0.53 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#28) | 0.56 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#52) | 0.524 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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