Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | FRES +125 UNLV -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +13 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -3.9 (+16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -3.8 (+16.8) | 131.9 (+7.1) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -3.2 (+16.2) | 132.3 (+6.7) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -4.0 (+17.0) | 132.3 (+6.7) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -3.9 (+16.9) | 133.1 (+5.9) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | FRES 98 – 96 UNLV |
| Dec 21, 2025 | UNLV 84 – 72 FRES |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNLV 52 – 51 FRES |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNLV 87 – 77 FRES |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNLV 67 – 65 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#183) | 7.0 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#223) | 1.28 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#206) | 2.01 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#218) | 0.582 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 27.7% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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