Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | FRES +105 UNLV -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +2 | 194 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -3.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+43.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -2.2 (-0.2) | 147.5 (+46.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -2.8 (-0.8) | 144.8 (+49.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -2.9 (-0.9) | 145.8 (+48.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -3.3 (-1.3) | 147.1 (+46.9) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2025 | UNLV 84 – 72 FRES |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNLV 52 – 51 FRES |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNLV 87 – 77 FRES |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNLV 67 – 65 FRES |
| Jan 31, 2024 | UNLV 78 – 69 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#139) | 1.2 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#175) | 0.29 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#144) | 0.33 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#191) | 0.513 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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