Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV -380 FRES +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +12 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -1.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -3.5 (+8.5) | 149.6 (+6.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -1.3 (+10.7) | 148.8 (+7.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -1.0 (+11.0) | 148.9 (+7.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -1.2 (+10.8) | 151.2 (+4.8) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | FRES 98 – 96 UNLV |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNLV 52 – 51 FRES |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNLV 87 – 77 FRES |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNLV 67 – 65 FRES |
| Jan 31, 2024 | UNLV 78 – 69 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#197) | 0.5 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#225) | -0.25 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#239) | -0.28 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#245) | 0.470 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.1% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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