Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +163 UNLV -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +2 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | UNLV -4.8 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -3.9 (+1.9) | 140.2 (-8.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -4.4 (+2.4) | 138.2 (-6.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -3.3 (+1.3) | 140.6 (-8.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -3.6 (+1.6) | 140.9 (-8.9) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | FRES 98 – 96 UNLV |
| Dec 21, 2025 | UNLV 84 – 72 FRES |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNLV 52 – 51 FRES |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNLV 87 – 77 FRES |
| Jan 31, 2024 | UNLV 78 – 69 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-9 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#204) | 6.1 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#177) | 1.18 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#175) | 1.28 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#171) | 0.564 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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