Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +320 UNLV -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +1 | 103 | Lost |
| Massey | UNLV -7.8 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-48.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -7.6 (+6.6) | 144.1 (-41.1) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -8.1 (+7.1) | 144.4 (-41.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -7.7 (+6.7) | 144.3 (-41.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -8.9 (+7.9) | 145.8 (-42.8) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | FRES 98 – 96 UNLV |
| Dec 21, 2025 | UNLV 84 – 72 FRES |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNLV 87 – 77 FRES |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNLV 67 – 65 FRES |
| Jan 31, 2024 | UNLV 78 – 69 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 11-9 |
| Home | 5-9 | 12-5 |
| Away | 1-14 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#267) | 4.7 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#323) | 0.84 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#313) | 1.26 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#332) | 0.529 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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