Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV -2000 FRES +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +10 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -14.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -12.4 (-2.4) | 144.5 (+19.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -12.4 (-2.4) | 147.4 (+16.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -10.9 (-0.9) | 142.6 (+21.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -11.1 (-1.1) | 142.9 (+21.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | FRES 98 – 96 UNLV |
| Dec 21, 2025 | UNLV 84 – 72 FRES |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNLV 52 – 51 FRES |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNLV 67 – 65 FRES |
| Jan 31, 2024 | UNLV 78 – 69 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 2-18 |
| Home | 12-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-7 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 80.7 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#113) | -7.1 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#120) | -1.30 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#106) | -1.77 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#129) | 0.416 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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