Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV -400 FRES +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -12.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -10.5 (-1.5) | 143.4 (+3.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -10.5 (-1.5) | 141.4 (+5.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -10.3 (-1.3) | 145.3 (+1.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -10.8 (-1.8) | 145.4 (+1.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | FRES 98 – 96 UNLV |
| Dec 21, 2025 | UNLV 84 – 72 FRES |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNLV 52 – 51 FRES |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNLV 87 – 77 FRES |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNLV 67 – 65 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-5 | 7-9 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#98) | -3.1 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#112) | -0.34 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#109) | -0.35 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#87) | 0.482 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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