Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | LUC +110 SBU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +12 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -3.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -2.8 (+14.8) | 133.6 (-11.6) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -3.7 (+15.7) | 136.3 (-14.3) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -4.0 (+16.0) | 136.5 (-14.5) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -5.1 (+17.1) | 135.4 (-13.4) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | SBU 84 – 70 LUC |
| Feb 5, 2025 | LUC 77 – 53 SBU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SBU 75 – 74 LUC |
| Feb 28, 2024 | SBU 79 – 64 LUC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#288) | 0.4 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#284) | 0.03 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#283) | 0.20 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#293) | 0.510 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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