Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | SBU -163 LUC +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +15 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -5.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -3.5 (+11.5) | 138.5 (+4.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -3.7 (+11.3) | 140.3 (+2.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -4.0 (+11.0) | 142.4 (+0.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -4.2 (+10.8) | 141.0 (+2.0) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | SBU 84 – 70 LUC |
| Feb 5, 2025 | LUC 77 – 53 SBU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SBU 75 – 74 LUC |
| Jan 21, 2023 | LUC 67 – 55 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 67.6 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#75) | 5.6 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#99) | 1.57 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#106) | 1.69 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#83) | 0.576 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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