Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -175 SBU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +24 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -2.5 (+26.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -1.5 (+25.5) | 131.9 (-1.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -1.0 (+25.0) | 132.4 (-2.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -1.9 (+25.9) | 133.2 (-3.2) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -1.7 (+25.7) | 133.1 (-3.1) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | SBU 84 – 70 LUC |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SBU 75 – 74 LUC |
| Feb 28, 2024 | SBU 79 – 64 LUC |
| Jan 21, 2023 | LUC 67 – 55 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-6 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#159) | 6.0 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#134) | 1.21 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#132) | 1.69 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#144) | 0.562 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.