Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -154 SBU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | SBU -0.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -0.3 (-1.3) | 136.8 (+12.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -1.7 (-2.7) | 136.7 (+12.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -1.4 (-2.4) | 138.2 (+10.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -1.3 (-2.3) | 138.1 (+10.9) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | SBU 84 – 70 LUC |
| Feb 5, 2025 | LUC 77 – 53 SBU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | SBU 79 – 64 LUC |
| Jan 21, 2023 | LUC 67 – 55 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#95) | 6.5 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#55) | 0.90 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#69) | 1.01 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#43) | 0.545 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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