He took it all too far, but boy could he play guitar. "Ziggy Stardust" - David Bowie
New Mexico Lobos
81 – 79 OT
FINAL Conference
Boise State Broncos
Mountain West Conference · The Pit · January 21, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UNM -2.5 Away covered
O/U 147.5 Over
Money UNM -154 / BOIS +120
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNM win
Actual UNM +2 160 Won
Massey UNM -2.3 (-0.3) — —
Massey Totals — 142.1 (+17.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 74% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 72% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UNM -2.2 (-0.2) 144.1 (+15.9) 68% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UNM -1.0 (+1.0) 145.7 (+14.3) 57% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UNM -2.9 (-0.9) 143.1 (+16.9) 64% ✓
Baseline ML UNM -2.4 (-0.4) 144.3 (+15.7) 65% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 8, 2026 BOIS 91 – 90 UNM
Dec 31, 2025 BOIS 62 – 53 UNM
Mar 15, 2025 BOIS 72 – 69 UNM
Feb 20, 2025 BOIS 86 – 78 UNM
Jan 18, 2025 UNM 84 – 65 BOIS

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNM BOIS
Overall 22-12 24-10
Conference 8-10 13-5
Home 15-5 14-1
Away 5-6 5-6
Neutral 2-1 5-3
Last 5 3-2 5-0
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 80.2 71.5
Avg Pts Against 74.6 65.0
Massey 11.3 (#34) 12.7 (#22)
Bradley-Terry 2.55 (#17) 2.15 (#31)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.17 (#19) 2.95 (#23)
RPI 0.605 (#26) 0.604 (#27)
Shooting & Four Factors UNM BOIS
FG% 48.4% 44.7%
3PT% 34.8% 36.8%
REB / G 38.7 37.3
OREB / G 10.1 9.2
AST / TO 1.19 1.03
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.2% 51.7%
TOV% 16.5% 16.6%
ORB% 29.6% 27.6%
FT Rate 30.2% 21.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.2% 44.8%
Opp TOV% 18.8% 18.2%
DRB% 75.6% 77.8%
Opp FT Rate 18.6% 18.9%

Game Analysis

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