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Boise State Broncos
86 – 78
FINAL Conference
New Mexico Lobos
Mountain West Conference · ExtraMile Arena · February 20, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread BOIS -4.5 Home covered
O/U 152.5 Over
Money BOIS -210 / UNM +175
Model Predictions
Spread Total BOIS win
Actual BOIS +8 164 Won
Massey BOIS -1.4 (+6.6) — —
Massey Totals — 152.2 (+11.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 36% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 25% ✗
Baseline Plus ML BOIS -1.7 (+6.3) 146.7 (+17.3) 61% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ BOIS -2.6 (+5.4) 146.5 (+17.5) 63% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML BOIS -2.0 (+6.0) 145.7 (+18.3) 58% ✓
Baseline ML BOIS -1.9 (+6.1) 145.7 (+18.3) 65% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 8, 2026 BOIS 91 – 90 UNM
Dec 31, 2025 BOIS 62 – 53 UNM
Mar 15, 2025 BOIS 72 – 69 UNM
Jan 18, 2025 UNM 84 – 65 BOIS
Mar 15, 2024 UNM 76 – 66 BOIS

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BOIS UNM
Overall 26-11 27-8
Conference 14-6 17-3
Home 13-3 15-1
Away 6-5 7-4
Neutral 7-3 5-3
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.1 79.3
Avg Pts Against 67.0 70.6
Massey 11.7 (#49) 13.4 (#37)
Bradley-Terry 1.59 (#62) 2.75 (#20)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.10 (#61) 3.87 (#16)
RPI 0.569 (#59) 0.616 (#22)
Shooting & Four Factors BOIS UNM
FG% 46.5% 45.6%
3PT% 31.8% 34.6%
REB / G 36.2 40.4
OREB / G 10.4 12.4
AST / TO 1.26 1.27
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.9% 51.2%
TOV% 17.1% 15.7%
ORB% 33.1% 32.1%
FT Rate 29.7% 26.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.9% 48.8%
Opp TOV% 16.2% 20.3%
DRB% 77.3% 74.1%
Opp FT Rate 21.2% 22.4%

Game Analysis

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