Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
New Mexico Lobos
69 – 72
FINAL Neutral Conference Mountain West
Boise State Broncos
Mountain West Conference · Thomas & Mack Center (Neutral) · March 15, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UNM -0.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Under
Money UNM -120 / BOIS +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNM win
Actual BOIS +3 141 Lost
Massey UNM -1.1 (-4.1) — —
Massey Totals — 149.4 (-8.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 65% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 73% ✗
Baseline Plus ML UNM -0.6 (-3.6) 143.3 (-2.3) 52% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UNM -0.1 (-3.1) 140.8 (+0.2) 53% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML UNM -1.1 (-4.1) 141.9 (-0.9) 53% ✗
Baseline ML UNM -0.7 (-3.7) 141.0 (-0.0) 52% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 8, 2026 BOIS 91 – 90 UNM
Dec 31, 2025 BOIS 62 – 53 UNM
Feb 20, 2025 BOIS 86 – 78 UNM
Jan 18, 2025 UNM 84 – 65 BOIS
Mar 15, 2024 UNM 76 – 66 BOIS

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNM BOIS
Overall 27-8 26-11
Conference 17-3 14-6
Home 15-1 13-3
Away 7-4 6-5
Neutral 5-3 7-3
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 79.3 75.1
Avg Pts Against 70.6 67.0
Massey 13.1 (#40) 12.0 (#48)
Bradley-Terry 2.60 (#31) 1.97 (#49)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.50 (#26) 2.53 (#49)
RPI 0.609 (#18) 0.577 (#47)
Shooting & Four Factors UNM BOIS
FG% 45.5% 45.6%
3PT% 34.1% 31.3%
REB / G 39.5 36.1
OREB / G 12.1 10.6
AST / TO 1.26 1.27
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.0% 52.2%
TOV% 15.8% 16.7%
ORB% 31.5% 33.2%
FT Rate 26.0% 30.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.1% 49.6%
Opp TOV% 20.5% 16.3%
DRB% 74.8% 77.8%
Opp FT Rate 22.9% 21.4%

Game Analysis

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