Everybody's in despair, every girl and boy. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
Boise State Broncos
66 – 76
FINAL Neutral Conference Mountain West
New Mexico Lobos
Mountain West Conference · Thomas & Mack Center (Neutral) · March 15, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UNM -1.5 Away covered
O/U 153.5 Under
Money BOIS -111 / UNM -111
Model Predictions
Spread Total BOIS win
Actual UNM +10 142 Lost
Massey UNM -1.7 (-8.3) — —
Massey Totals — 153.2 (-11.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 54% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 47% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UNM -1.1 (-8.9) 149.4 (-7.4) 44% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UNM -0.3 (-9.7) 145.4 (-3.4) 50% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UNM -0.9 (-9.1) 149.4 (-7.4) 46% ✓
Baseline ML UNM -1.0 (-9.0) 151.6 (-9.6) 45% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 8, 2026 BOIS 91 – 90 UNM
Dec 31, 2025 BOIS 62 – 53 UNM
Mar 15, 2025 BOIS 72 – 69 UNM
Feb 20, 2025 BOIS 86 – 78 UNM
Jan 18, 2025 UNM 84 – 65 BOIS

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BOIS UNM
Overall 22-11 26-10
Conference 13-5 10-8
Home 13-3 13-3
Away 7-3 5-6
Neutral 2-5 8-1
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 73.6 80.8
Avg Pts Against 67.6 71.2
Massey 12.1 (#40) 13.8 (#21)
Bradley-Terry 2.17 (#27) 2.03 (#38)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.36 (#43) 2.48 (#36)
RPI 0.593 (#27) 0.593 (#26)
Shooting & Four Factors BOIS UNM
FG% 45.3% 46.1%
3PT% 35.1% 33.6%
REB / G 35.9 39.0
OREB / G 10.8 12.8
AST / TO 1.08 1.44
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.2% 51.2%
TOV% 16.5% 14.1%
ORB% 32.4% 33.7%
FT Rate 26.9% 23.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.9% 49.1%
Opp TOV% 16.9% 19.7%
DRB% 77.2% 73.8%
Opp FT Rate 23.9% 25.7%

Game Analysis

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