Betting Lines
| Spread | EMU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | EMU -138 NIU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +21 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | EMU -1.2 (-22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EMU -0.2 (-21.2) | 150.5 (+4.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EMU -0.3 (-21.3) | 148.5 (+6.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -0.2 (-20.8) | 150.2 (+4.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -0.6 (-20.4) | 149.3 (+5.7) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | EMU 77 – 59 NIU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | EMU 79 – 76 NIU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | EMU 75 – 71 NIU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NIU 76 – 66 EMU |
| Mar 3, 2023 | NIU 85 – 66 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-7 | 5-7 |
| Away | 2-13 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#332) | -7.7 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#332) | -1.14 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#330) | -1.38 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#342) | 0.454 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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