Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | NIU -250 EMU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | NIU -9.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIU -6.5 (+3.5) | 145.3 (-3.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -6.5 (+3.5) | 144.2 (-2.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -6.1 (+3.9) | 144.1 (-2.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIU -6.3 (+3.7) | 145.6 (-3.6) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | EMU 77 – 59 NIU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | EMU 79 – 76 NIU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | EMU 75 – 71 NIU |
| Mar 3, 2023 | NIU 85 – 66 EMU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | NIU 88 – 67 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 5-9 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#287) | -12.7 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#277) | -1.34 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#275) | -1.92 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#245) | 0.421 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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