Betting Lines
| Spread | EMU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | NIU +180 EMU -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +3 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | EMU -2.9 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EMU -3.3 (+0.3) | 147.2 (+7.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EMU -2.9 (-0.1) | 145.7 (+9.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EMU -3.4 (+0.4) | 143.9 (+11.1) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EMU -3.4 (+0.4) | 147.6 (+7.4) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | EMU 77 – 59 NIU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | EMU 75 – 71 NIU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NIU 76 – 66 EMU |
| Mar 3, 2023 | NIU 85 – 66 EMU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | NIU 88 – 67 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-10 | 9-5 |
| Away | 1-15 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -14.3 (#353) | -8.2 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.93 (#355) | -0.53 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.30 (#355) | -1.00 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.369 (#358) | 0.470 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 17.5% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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