Betting Lines
| Spread | EMU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | EMU -410 NIU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +18 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | EMU -11.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EMU -10.8 (+7.2) | 134.5 (+1.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EMU -8.8 (+9.2) | 137.2 (-1.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EMU -8.9 (+9.1) | 134.2 (+1.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EMU -9.7 (+8.3) | 135.0 (+1.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2025 | EMU 79 – 76 NIU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | EMU 75 – 71 NIU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NIU 76 – 66 EMU |
| Mar 3, 2023 | NIU 85 – 66 EMU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | NIU 88 – 67 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-14 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#200) | -10.5 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#201) | -1.58 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#190) | -2.32 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#223) | 0.440 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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