Betting Lines
| Spread | EMU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | EMU -300 NIU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | EMU -10.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EMU -9.6 (-5.6) | 147.5 (-1.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EMU -7.3 (-3.3) | 145.9 (+0.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EMU -8.2 (-4.2) | 145.6 (+0.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EMU -7.5 (-3.5) | 146.8 (-0.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | EMU 77 – 59 NIU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | EMU 79 – 76 NIU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NIU 76 – 66 EMU |
| Mar 3, 2023 | NIU 85 – 66 EMU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | NIU 88 – 67 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 2-16 |
| Home | 9-5 | 5-10 |
| Away | 6-10 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#306) | -15.1 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#213) | -1.93 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#244) | -2.39 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#236) | 0.398 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 35.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 17.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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