Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +19 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | NIU -7.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIU -4.8 (+14.2) | 152.7 (-1.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIU -5.3 (+13.7) | 150.5 (+0.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -5.7 (+13.3) | 151.3 (-0.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -5.5 (+13.5) | 151.9 (-0.9) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 13, 2026 | EMU 77 – 59 NIU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | EMU 79 – 76 NIU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | EMU 75 – 71 NIU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NIU 76 – 66 EMU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | NIU 88 – 67 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 7-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 81.3 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#250) | -8.9 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#258) | -1.62 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#249) | -1.93 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#244) | 0.417 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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