Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | HOW -175 MORG +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +32 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MORG -0.4 (+32.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -0.1 (+31.9) | 147.8 (-3.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -1.7 (+30.3) | 147.1 (-3.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -0.1 (+32.1) | 146.7 (-2.7) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -0.1 (+32.1) | 148.5 (-4.5) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | HOW 84 – 59 MORG |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MORG 78 – 77 HOW |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MORG 91 – 90 HOW |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HOW 87 – 81 MORG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HOW 100 – 95 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 6-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#304) | -3.7 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#250) | -0.12 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#272) | -0.60 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#263) | 0.513 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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