Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -200 VILL +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +8 | 106 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -6.2 (-14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-46.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -5.1 (-13.1) | 149.3 (-43.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -5.7 (-13.7) | 147.0 (-41.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -5.6 (-13.6) | 150.9 (-44.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -5.6 (-13.6) | 151.9 (-45.9) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SJU 89 – 57 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SJU 86 – 79 VILL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | VILL 73 – 71 SJU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SJU 80 – 68 VILL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SJU 70 – 50 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#74) | 5.3 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#58) | 0.52 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#56) | 0.88 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#91) | 0.520 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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