Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -333 MER +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +11 | 107 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -9.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -8.3 (+2.7) | 131.6 (-24.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -7.2 (+3.8) | 129.8 (-22.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -8.2 (+2.8) | 130.1 (-23.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -8.5 (+2.5) | 129.9 (-22.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MER 95 – 77 UNCG |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MER 102 – 92 UNCG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 61 MER |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MER 79 – 78 UNCG |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MER 86 – 72 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#134) | -4.0 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#145) | -0.87 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#136) | -1.00 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#119) | 0.449 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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