Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | MER -700 UNCG +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +18 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | MER -15.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -12.4 (+5.6) | 154.7 (+17.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -10.5 (+7.5) | 154.4 (+17.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -13.6 (+4.4) | 156.9 (+15.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -13.6 (+4.4) | 156.6 (+15.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | MER 102 – 92 UNCG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 61 MER |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MER 79 – 78 UNCG |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MER 86 – 72 UNCG |
| Jan 28, 2024 | MER 70 – 64 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 81.9 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#134) | -10.5 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#132) | -1.53 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#139) | -1.97 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#95) | 0.430 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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