Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MER +188 UNCG -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +14 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -2.4 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -2.2 (+16.2) | 138.1 (+19.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -2.3 (+16.3) | 135.6 (+22.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -2.7 (+16.7) | 139.3 (+18.7) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -3.3 (+17.3) | 138.7 (+19.3) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MER 95 – 77 UNCG |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MER 102 – 92 UNCG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 61 MER |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MER 79 – 78 UNCG |
| Jan 28, 2024 | MER 70 – 64 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#239) | 1.6 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#224) | 1.10 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#242) | 1.03 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#232) | 0.545 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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