Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -700 MER +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +6 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -11.1 (-17.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -9.5 (-15.5) | 137.1 (-3.1) | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -10.0 (-16.0) | 137.3 (-3.3) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -10.5 (-16.5) | 138.0 (-4.0) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -9.7 (-15.7) | 137.7 (-3.7) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MER 95 – 77 UNCG |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MER 102 – 92 UNCG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 61 MER |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MER 79 – 78 UNCG |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MER 86 – 72 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#127) | -4.5 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#78) | -0.98 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#92) | -1.45 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#61) | 0.452 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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