Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG +220 MER -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +10 | 194 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -8.8 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.2 (+31.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -7.8 (-2.2) | 154.2 (+39.8) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -7.0 (-3.0) | 157.0 (+37.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -8.6 (-1.4) | 155.5 (+38.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -8.5 (-1.5) | 154.5 (+39.5) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MER 95 – 77 UNCG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 61 MER |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MER 79 – 78 UNCG |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MER 86 – 72 UNCG |
| Jan 28, 2024 | MER 70 – 64 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#306) | 2.5 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#302) | 0.33 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#293) | 0.32 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#322) | 0.538 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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