Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -420 MER +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +1 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -11.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -10.4 (-11.4) | 142.4 (+14.6) | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -10.7 (-11.7) | 145.9 (+11.1) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -11.2 (-12.2) | 144.0 (+13.0) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -10.6 (-11.6) | 142.6 (+14.4) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MER 95 – 77 UNCG |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MER 102 – 92 UNCG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 61 MER |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MER 86 – 72 UNCG |
| Jan 28, 2024 | MER 70 – 64 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#113) | -5.1 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#121) | -0.69 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#144) | -0.92 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#102) | 0.462 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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