Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -600 ULM +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +24 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -14.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -10.0 (+14.0) | 136.2 (-6.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -10.3 (+13.7) | 137.0 (-7.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -10.0 (+14.0) | 135.3 (-5.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -10.6 (+13.4) | 134.4 (-4.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TROY 80 – 65 ULM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | TROY 77 – 76 ULM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TROY 87 – 50 ULM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | TROY 77 – 58 ULM |
| Feb 24, 2024 | TROY 84 – 78 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#113) | -6.9 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#162) | -0.61 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#137) | -0.66 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#149) | 0.470 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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