Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | CCU +150 USA -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +4 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | USA -2.8 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+25.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -1.1 (+5.1) | 141.6 (+24.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -1.3 (+5.3) | 141.0 (+25.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -1.5 (+5.5) | 142.5 (+23.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -1.8 (+5.8) | 141.4 (+24.6) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | USA 53 – 48 CCU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | USA 84 – 59 CCU |
| Mar 29, 2022 | CCU 69 – 68 USA |
| Feb 18, 2022 | USA 71 – 68 CCU |
| Feb 6, 2021 | USA 70 – 66 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#281) | 0.0 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#194) | -0.66 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#234) | -0.82 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#155) | 0.485 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 13.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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