Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | USA -185 CCU +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +5 | 101 | Won |
| Massey | USA -4.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-41.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -3.2 (+1.8) | 140.1 (-39.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -4.8 (+0.2) | 143.2 (-42.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -3.8 (+1.2) | 142.9 (-41.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -3.1 (+1.9) | 141.0 (-40.0) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2025 | USA 84 – 59 CCU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | CCU 85 – 81 USA |
| Mar 29, 2022 | CCU 69 – 68 USA |
| Feb 18, 2022 | USA 71 – 68 CCU |
| Feb 6, 2021 | USA 70 – 66 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#220) | -4.7 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#151) | -0.05 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#154) | -0.48 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#173) | 0.506 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 12.4% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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