Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | USA -115 CCU -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +1 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -2.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -1.8 (-2.8) | 136.1 (+0.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -1.9 (-2.9) | 131.8 (+5.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -2.2 (-3.2) | 133.2 (+3.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -2.2 (-3.2) | 136.9 (+0.1) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | USA 53 – 48 CCU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | USA 84 – 59 CCU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | CCU 85 – 81 USA |
| Feb 18, 2022 | USA 71 – 68 CCU |
| Feb 6, 2021 | USA 70 – 66 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 8-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.7 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#145) | 1.5 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#143) | 0.05 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#142) | 0.13 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#112) | 0.513 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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