Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +3 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -0.2 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -0.1 (-3.1) | 135.8 (+3.2) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCU -0.7 (-3.7) | 133.6 (+5.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCU -0.0 (-3.0) | 134.5 (+4.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -0.1 (-2.9) | 136.7 (+2.3) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | USA 53 – 48 CCU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | USA 84 – 59 CCU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | CCU 85 – 81 USA |
| Mar 29, 2022 | CCU 69 – 68 USA |
| Feb 6, 2021 | USA 70 – 66 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| Home | 13-7 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 65.7 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#155) | 3.5 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#184) | 0.56 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#176) | 0.79 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#186) | 0.541 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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