Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | CCU +270 USA -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +25 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -7.7 (-17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (+16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -7.8 (-17.2) | 130.0 (+13.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -7.7 (-17.3) | 133.4 (+9.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -7.9 (-17.1) | 131.1 (+11.9) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -8.0 (-17.0) | 129.9 (+13.1) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | USA 53 – 48 CCU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | CCU 85 – 81 USA |
| Mar 29, 2022 | CCU 69 – 68 USA |
| Feb 18, 2022 | USA 71 – 68 CCU |
| Feb 6, 2021 | USA 70 – 66 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-8 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#314) | 1.4 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#330) | -0.04 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#325) | 0.11 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#344) | 0.490 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.7% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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