Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | BUF +163 TOL -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +9 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -3.4 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -2.3 (-6.7) | 166.7 (-3.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -1.7 (-7.3) | 161.1 (+1.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -1.9 (-7.1) | 165.8 (-2.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -1.9 (-7.1) | 168.4 (-5.4) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TOL 99 – 78 BUF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BUF 87 – 74 TOL |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TOL 87 – 74 BUF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TOL 85 – 79 BUF |
| Jan 17, 2024 | TOL 77 – 66 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 16-2 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 84.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#217) | 4.9 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#218) | 0.60 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#223) | 0.78 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#226) | 0.540 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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