Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -258 BUF +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +21 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -5.9 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -5.4 (+15.6) | 150.6 (+26.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -5.9 (+15.1) | 149.6 (+27.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -5.9 (+15.1) | 153.3 (+23.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -5.3 (+15.7) | 154.6 (+22.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | BUF 87 – 74 TOL |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TOL 87 – 74 BUF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TOL 85 – 79 BUF |
| Jan 17, 2024 | TOL 77 – 66 BUF |
| Feb 25, 2023 | TOL 101 – 71 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#150) | -1.8 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#155) | -0.18 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#145) | -0.14 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#105) | 0.497 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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