Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -1600 BUF +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +11 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -17.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -12.8 (-1.8) | 150.4 (-7.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -13.6 (-2.6) | 150.2 (-7.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -14.2 (-3.2) | 149.1 (-6.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -13.4 (-2.4) | 149.6 (-6.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TOL 99 – 78 BUF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BUF 87 – 74 TOL |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TOL 87 – 74 BUF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TOL 85 – 79 BUF |
| Feb 25, 2023 | TOL 101 – 71 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 2-16 |
| Home | 12-3 | 2-13 |
| Away | 8-5 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 79.6 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#141) | -12.3 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#104) | -3.08 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#139) | -3.57 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#107) | 0.396 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 25.4% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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