Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | BUF +260 TOL -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +13 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -6.2 (+19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -4.7 (+17.7) | 153.8 (+7.2) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -5.1 (+18.1) | 153.1 (+7.9) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -6.1 (+19.1) | 154.0 (+7.0) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -5.2 (+18.2) | 152.9 (+8.1) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TOL 99 – 78 BUF |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TOL 87 – 74 BUF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | TOL 85 – 79 BUF |
| Jan 17, 2024 | TOL 77 – 66 BUF |
| Feb 25, 2023 | TOL 101 – 71 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-9 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 81.1 |
| Massey | -13.8 (#350) | -4.4 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#331) | 0.15 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.77 (#339) | -0.20 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#327) | 0.530 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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