Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | BUF +450 TOL -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +6 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -11.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -10.3 (+4.3) | 153.0 (+11.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -11.8 (+5.8) | 151.5 (+12.5) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -10.5 (+4.5) | 150.1 (+13.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -10.8 (+4.8) | 151.2 (+12.8) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | TOL 99 – 78 BUF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BUF 87 – 74 TOL |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TOL 87 – 74 BUF |
| Jan 17, 2024 | TOL 77 – 66 BUF |
| Feb 25, 2023 | TOL 101 – 71 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 14-4 |
| Home | 2-13 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -13.3 (#342) | 1.8 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#350) | 0.59 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.20 (#347) | 0.49 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#336) | 0.535 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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