Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
| Money | MRST -138 SPU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +4 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -5.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -3.2 (-7.2) | 128.1 (-10.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -2.7 (-6.7) | 126.6 (-8.6) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -2.2 (-6.2) | 128.3 (-10.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -3.3 (-7.3) | 127.0 (-9.0) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SPU 63 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SPU 69 – 59 MRST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | SPU 57 – 52 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | MRST 56 – 51 SPU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SPU 69 – 60 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 7-13 |
| Home | 5-10 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 60.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#292) | -8.2 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#281) | -1.70 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#291) | -2.07 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#305) | 0.415 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 39.4% |
Game Analysis
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