Betting Lines
| Spread | OSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | OSU -163 IOWA +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +16 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | OSU -5.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -4.1 (+11.9) | 154.5 (+15.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OSU -4.5 (+11.5) | 150.0 (+20.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -3.4 (+12.6) | 155.2 (+14.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -3.0 (+13.0) | 155.5 (+14.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | OSU 72 – 69 IOWA |
| Feb 26, 2026 | IOWA 74 – 57 OSU |
| Mar 12, 2025 | IOWA 77 – 70 OSU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | OSU 82 – 65 IOWA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | OSU 90 – 78 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#17) | 11.9 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#88) | 1.93 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#72) | 2.51 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#124) | 0.575 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 14.1% |
Game Analysis
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