Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | ARST +450 MRSH -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +9 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | MRSH -13.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -10.6 (+1.6) | 137.5 (+27.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -13.1 (+4.1) | 137.1 (+27.9) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -12.7 (+3.7) | 139.0 (+26.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -13.9 (+4.9) | 137.7 (+27.3) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MRSH 70 – 61 ARST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ARST 77 – 74 MRSH |
| Feb 6, 2025 | MRSH 77 – 72 ARST |
| Nov 27, 2020 | MRSH 70 – 56 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 24-8 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 81.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#317) | 9.1 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#300) | 1.18 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#306) | 1.63 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#327) | 0.569 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 13.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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