Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -162 MRSH +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +9 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -2.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.0 (-36.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -3.2 (-12.2) | 159.4 (-28.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -0.9 (-9.9) | 158.6 (-27.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -0.9 (-9.9) | 158.7 (-27.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -1.2 (-10.2) | 159.9 (-28.9) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2025 | ARST 77 – 74 MRSH |
| Feb 6, 2025 | MRSH 77 – 72 ARST |
| Jan 21, 2023 | MRSH 87 – 78 ARST |
| Nov 27, 2020 | MRSH 70 – 56 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#174) | 0.8 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#125) | 0.25 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#122) | 0.06 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#76) | 0.533 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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