Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -400 MRSH +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -7.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -7.8 (-4.8) | 146.2 (+4.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -8.3 (-5.3) | 144.7 (+6.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -7.5 (-4.5) | 145.7 (+5.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -7.7 (-4.7) | 145.5 (+5.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MRSH 70 – 61 ARST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | MRSH 77 – 72 ARST |
| Jan 21, 2023 | MRSH 87 – 78 ARST |
| Nov 27, 2020 | MRSH 70 – 56 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#86) | -1.0 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#112) | -0.04 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#98) | -0.11 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#70) | 0.521 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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